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In my latest book, The Mind Gut Immune Connection, I have discussed in detail the unfolding chronic non-contagious disease epidemic in the US, with increasing rates of obesity, type II diabetes, metabolic syndrome and several diseases affecting different organs, from the liver to the brain, and from the large intestine to the heart. We have also addressed this issue in previous posts of this blog. Sadly, the problem hasn’t gone away, and a recent study published in the prestigious journal Lancet puts the topic front and center of the health and wellness discussion.

The Lancet study focuses on the obesity epidemic in the United States, examining trends in overweight and obesity rates from 1990 to 2021, and projecting these figures up to 2050. The findings highlight the relentless upward trend in obesity rates across various age groups and states, with a substantial increase in obesity prevalence predicted if current trends persist.

The key findings of the study can be summarized as follows:

Growing Obesity Rates:

As of 2021, 15.1 million children (5–14 years), 21.4 million adolescents (15–24 years), and 172 million adults in the U.S. are overweight or obese. This amounts to a 75% rate of overweight and obesity in the adult US population. Forecasts suggest these numbers will further rise, with obesity affecting one-third of adolescents and two-thirds of adults by 2050.

Regional Variations:
Obesity rates are not uniform across states. Southern states like Mississippi and Alabama show particularly high rates. Among adolescents, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama have the highest overweight and obesity prevalence.

Sex and Gender Differences:
More females than males in the adolescent and adult groups are affected by obesity. The age-standardized prevalence for adults in 2021 was around 75.9% for males and 72.6% for females.

Economic Impact:
The economic impact of the obesity epidemic is staggering with healthcare costs related to obesity estimated to be hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and rising.

Future Projections:
By 2050, an estimated 213 million adults and over 43 million children and adolescents could be overweight or obese if preventive measures are not improved.

In my book, The Mind Gut Immune Connection, and in this blog, we have often discussed the multifactorial biological, social, psychological and structural factors underlying the obesity epidemic which are also identified by the authors, which include:

• Urbanization with reduced access to a variety of fresh fruits and vegetables and other healthy foods in many areas in the country, leading to “food deserts.” Continued popularity of high caloric and unhealthy ultra-processed and fast foods.
• Greatly reduced physical activity due to sedentary lifestyles and lack of emphasis of physical education in schools.
• Socioeconomic factors, like income disparities, which impact diet and lifestyle choices. Paradoxically, unhealthy fast foods and sugary drinks are cheaper than a healthy diet
• Nearly a complete lack of health education in schools.
• Environmental factors, such as limited access to recreational areas or safe neighborhoods for physical activity.
• Normalization of obesity in the media. While this had the laudable effect of reducing “fat shaming” , this trend indirectly suggests to viewers that it is now OK and acceptable to be obese and there is no need to change obesogenic lifestyles.

Recommendations:

To curb the obesity epidemic, the authors advocate for a “multifaceted approach” including:

• Policy Changes: Strong governance and policy reforms to improve food quality, reduce food deserts, and regulate marketing are essential. Such changes should also include curtailing of the lobbying efforts by industrial agriculture and the food industry, and shifts from federally subsidized production of unhealthy food components towards tax incentives for healthy foods. Unfortunately, this longstanding federal support of unhealthy food production has gone on under the radar of the public.
• Public Health Initiatives: Emphasis on childhood and adolescent obesity prevention is vital, as early obesity often leads to treatment resistant adult obesity with lifelong health challenges. Unfortunately, recent initiatives to implement such initiatives at the federal or state level have largely failed due to politicization of the issue.
• Clinical Innovations: While nearly all previous medical, pharmaceutical and surgical treatments have failed to stem the progression of the obesity epidemic, the new class of anti-obesity drugs such as GLP1 and GIP agonists (including Ozempic, Wegovy) suggest a new opportunity to develop multifactorial interventions including anti-obesity drugs as part of a larger prevention-focused strategy to be truly effective. Cost reduction and demonstration of long term safety of the new drugs are essential to make this a viable option.

The study concludes that without significant changes in national health policies and preventive measures, the U.S. obesity epidemic will continue to grow, leading to severe health and massive economic repercussions.

Why is this study important?

As also described in my book, obesity is just the most visible tip of the iceberg of the current chronic disease epidemic. Mediated by the underlying low grade immune activation originating in the gut-associated immune system, obesity and metabolic syndrome are the major risk factors for a variety of interrelated chronic diseases including metabolic, cardiovascular, neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative diseases all of which have been increasing in prevalence during the same time period as the obesity epidemic.

As a society, are we willing to invest trillions of dollars in taking care of affected individuals and keeping mortality in check with medications and other medical interventions, or is it time to implement the obvious and much cheaper preventive intervention to stop the epidemic?